Dealer Bust Odds
If you look closely at blackjack strategy cards, there's always a clear marker in what you need to do between the dealer having a 6 and a 7. Why is that? Well, it's all down to probabilities of course.
On average the dealer will go bust 28% of the time (this is useful to have in your head the next time you are thinking of continuing to hit when you really ought to be standing).
The following sets out the probabilty of the dealer going bust in a multi-deck blackjack game and how that probability varies with his "up card".
| Dealer's face uo card | Probability of dealer going bust |
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 37% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 42% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 23% |
| A | 17% |
These obviously only applies to those cases where the dealer does not have a blackjack, as in that scenario you have lost anyway.
Notice the big drop between a 6 up card and a 7 up card.